| Will a Republican win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Politics | | | | D- | 0.2362 |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Politics | 890 | 10,634 | $65,015,804 | C | 0.0090 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k before January 2025? | Economics | 1,756 | 5,683 | $24,062,377 | F | 0.4909 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Politics | 772 | 6,965 | $54,657,350 | F | 0.9098 |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Politics | 302 | 7,506 | $156,704,030 | F | 0.4992 |
| Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Politics | 1,163 | 4,075 | $9,515,651 | F | 0.2762 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | Politics | 1,410 | 4,010 | $6,573,189 | D- | 0.1808 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Politics | 169 | 9,165 | $56,544,926 | D+ | 0.0320 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Politics | 968 | 5,814 | $5,683,561 | C+ | 0.0072 |
| Will the US ban TikTok before May 2025? | Politics | 271 | 4,070 | $123,007,863 | F | 0.5566 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl? | Sports | 357 | 6,852 | $21,883,882 | F | 0.6590 |
| Will the Liverpool win the 2025 Premier League Championship? | Sports | 294 | 8,866 | $13,900,079 | D | 0.0721 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5k before January 2025? | Economics | 323 | 7,195 | $19,564,533 | D- | 0.1582 |
| Will Biden pardon Sam Bankman-Fried? | Politics | 802 | 3,668 | $10,366,268 | A | 0.0013 |
| Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives? | Politics | 1,861 | 2,100 | $5,206,825 | D+ | 0.0348 |
| Will a Republican win the Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 5,917 | $21,654,524 | D- | 0.1887 |
| Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate seat? | Politics | 361 | 2,895 | $19,629,808 | D- | 0.1164 |
| Will Republicans control the US Senate, House, and Presidency? | Politics | 335 | 4,895 | $19,670,291 | F | 0.4220 |
| Will Republicans win control of the US Senate in 2024? | Politics | 1,163 | 1,592 | $4,344,493 | D | 0.0888 |
| Will a Republican win the Michigan Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 5,351 | $15,164,604 | D- | 0.2151 |
| Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Economics | 961 | 2,056 | $12,623,395 | D- | 0.1236 |
| Will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race? | Politics | 303 | 4,467 | $21,135,390 | F | 0.3126 |
| Will a Republican win the North Carolina Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 5,377 | $12,435,858 | D | 0.0642 |
| Will the Barcelona win the 2025 La Liga Championship? | Sports | 377 | 4,845 | $5,899,121 | D | 0.0614 |
| Will Tether collapse before January 2025? | Economics | 727 | 6,189 | $1,458,974 | D+ | 0.0271 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the 2025 German election? | Politics | 618 | 5,438 | $11,315,326 | C | 0.0130 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k before December 2024? | Economics | 258 | 3,245 | $30,076,768 | F | 0.2656 |
| Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap before January 2025? | Economics | 558 | 6,297 | $6,194,788 | B | 0.0040 |
| Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Sports | 1,083 | 2,457 | $2,389,351 | D+ | 0.0357 |
| Will a Republican win the Georgia Presidential Election? | Politics | 244 | 3,734 | $16,618,409 | D | 0.1000 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k before January 2025? | Economics | 300 | 8,549 | $9,422,751 | A+ | 0.0006 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services? | Politics | 177 | 2,801 | $14,550,272 | D | 0.0601 |
| Will a Republican win the Arizona Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 3,899 | $8,836,074 | D- | 0.1174 |
| Will GPT-5 be released before January 2025? | Technology | 656 | 5,346 | $979,181 | F | 0.2774 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | Politics | 91 | 6,168 | $10,985,888 | D | 0.0730 |
| Will a Republican win the Nevada Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 3,236 | $11,876,513 | D- | 0.1555 |
| Will there be a Russo-Ukraine ceasefire before January 2025? | Politics | 366 | 4,584 | $3,514,982 | C | 0.0104 |
| Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before January 2025? | Politics | 637 | 5,041 | $4,743,349 | D+ | 0.0438 |
| Will Trump win all seven swing states? | Politics | 118 | 5,615 | $19,557,667 | F | 0.6068 |
| Will Wisconsin be the closest state in the 2024 Presidential election? | Politics | 467 | 2,811 | $4,810,982 | F | 0.7429 |
| Will Ethereum (ETH) reach a new all-time high before January 2025? | Economics | 309 | 4,742 | $3,469,855 | D- | 0.2285 |
| Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden? | Politics | 181 | 3,946 | $4,190,365 | F | 0.5940 |
| Will a Republican win the Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Politics | 309 | 2,956 | $8,252,186 | D- | 0.2184 |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Sports | 254 | 5,595 | $15,931,114 | D- | 0.2481 |
| Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? | Politics | 673 | 4,024 | $2,191,363 | B | 0.0044 |
| Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO before January 2025? | Politics | 1,083 | 2,311 | $2,220,298 | C- | 0.0233 |
| Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2024? | Politics | 448 | 3,003 | $7,577,952 | F | 0.8900 |
| Will J.D. Vance be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President? | Politics | 224 | 3,052 | $6,516,724 | F | 0.9112 |
| Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | Science | 505 | 3,650 | $662,333 | D- | 0.1114 |
| Will the US enter a recession before January 2025? | Economics | 646 | 1,880 | $1,479,877 | D+ | 0.0313 |
| Will the US ban TikTok before January 2025? | Politics | 706 | 2,458 | $706,145 | B- | 0.0053 |
| Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | Politics | 165 | 3,472 | $1,513,895 | D- | 0.2060 |
| Will "Inside Out 2" be the global highest-grossing movie in 2024? | Culture | 336 | 2,796 | $8,910,313 | D+ | 0.0339 |
| Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in 2024? | Politics | 290 | 4,727 | $4,031,809 | D- | 0.1373 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 Masters Tournament? | Sports | 365 | 585 | $23,534,588 | F | 0.8341 |
| Israel strike a Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? | Politics | 223 | 3,732 | $10,078,443 | F | 0.5590 |
| Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Politics | 109 | 4,848 | $4,041,538 | C+ | 0.0074 |
| Will Donald Trump be 2024 TIME Person of the Year? | Culture | 405 | 2,589 | $1,039,693 | D- | 0.2303 |
| Will Anora win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 130 | 2,738 | $1,976,551 | D- | 0.2221 |
| Will an early federal election be called in Canada in 2024? | Politics | 388 | 3,670 | $1,863,927 | C | 0.0134 |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 75 | 1,944 | $25,109,712 | F | 0.7199 |
| Will Bernie Moreno (R) win the 2024 Ohio Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 1,427 | $3,350,712 | D- | 0.1783 |
| Will David McCormick (R) win the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 1,216 | $4,409,116 | F | 0.5418 |
| Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI before January 2025? | Technology | 369 | 1,897 | $959,286 | B | 0.0040 |
| Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Politics | 366 | 1,935 | $921,924 | F | 0.3516 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be confirmed as Trump's first Defense Secretary? | Politics | 73 | 2,651 | $11,798,041 | D | 0.0813 |
| Will Trump be in jail before election day? | Politics | 458 | 1,955 | $2,619,293 | C- | 0.0162 |
| Will NASA land humans on the moon again before 2025? | Science | 2,104 | 885 | $106,521 | B- | 0.0047 |
| Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public before 2025? | Culture | 2,264 | 1,145 | $273,034 | C+ | 0.0068 |
| Will there be a US government shutdown before January 2025? | Politics | 366 | 776 | $4,185,516 | C- | 0.0151 |
| Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? | Politics | 136 | 2,582 | $2,602,439 | D | 0.0536 |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Politics | 121 | 6,386 | $2,534,311 | C | 0.0138 |
| Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? | Politics | 376 | 2,174 | $552,012 | D+ | 0.0279 |
| Will Israel invade Syria before January 2025? | Politics | 87 | 3,357 | $16,819,809 | F | 0.8694 |
| Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on January 1, 2025? | Technology | 384 | 1,996 | $436,675 | F | 0.3481 |
| Will Verstappen win the 2024 F1 Drivers' Championship? | Sports | 334 | 3,589 | $835,506 | D | 0.0613 |
| Will Harris flip a 2020 Trump state? | Politics | 205 | 1,871 | $1,644,708 | D- | 0.1735 |
| Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? | Science | 405 | 1,423 | $874,223 | D- | 0.1625 |
| Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state in the 2024 US presidential election? | Politics | 338 | 1,174 | $1,459,140 | F | 0.5212 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? | Politics | 358 | 2,428 | $1,272,221 | B | 0.0043 |
| Will Jacky Rosen (D) win the 2024 Nevada Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 807 | $3,694,527 | D | 0.1057 |
| Will "Astro Bot" win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2024? | Culture | 150 | 1,933 | $644,066 | F | 0.3810 |
| Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record? | Science | 198 | 1,266 | $2,730,812 | F | 0.3282 |
| Will Adam Gray (D) win California's 13th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 255 | 871 | $3,128,061 | D- | 0.1424 |
| Will the Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 PGA Championship? | Sports | 365 | 272 | $8,833,483 | F | 0.7728 |
| Will January 2025 be the hottest January on record? | Science | 88 | 1,824 | $4,375,696 | D- | 0.2418 |
| Will there be a US government shutdown before January 2024? | Politics | 395 | 2,424 | $163,299 | D- | 0.1135 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025? | Politics | 29 | 4,036 | $8,437,647 | B- | 0.0052 |
| Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? | Science | 364 | 1,361 | $453,721 | B | 0.0033 |
| Will Sundar Pichai cease to be CEO of Alphabet before January 2025? | Economics | 431 | 893 | $641,834 | C- | 0.0153 |
| Will the COVID lab leak theory be confirmed before January 2025? | Science | 515 | 1,603 | $690,321 | B+ | 0.0024 |
| Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Politics | 517 | 1,545 | $732,144 | D- | 0.1755 |
| Will Microsoft shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | Economics | 47 | 5,032 | $7,603,075 | F | 0.3817 |
| Will Biden be removed under the 25th Amendment during his current term? | Politics | 914 | 531 | $1,587,541 | B | 0.0031 |
| Will August 2024 be the hottest August on record? | Science | 147 | 1,032 | $3,622,812 | D | 0.0588 |
| Will Ethena collapse before January 2025? | Economics | 274 | 3,922 | $314,790 | C | 0.0101 |
| Will Ted Cruz (R) win the 2024 Texas Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 539 | $2,749,933 | C- | 0.0193 |
| Will Spain win the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship? | Sports | 226 | 2,128 | $1,483,774 | F | 0.7628 |
| Will the US pass a bill to ban TikTok before 2025? | Politics | 366 | 1,436 | $208,702 | F | 0.3773 |
| Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the Florida senator to replace Marco Rubio? | Politics | 75 | 3,055 | $1,030,794 | D- | 0.1986 |
| Will there be more than 15 named tropical storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Science | 268 | 1,055 | $3,688,832 | C+ | 0.0063 |
| Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Trump's Attorney General? | Politics | 49 | 1,382 | $11,472,962 | A+ | 0.0002 |
| Will America ban Zyn nicotine pouches before January 2025? | Politics | 341 | 1,117 | $324,907 | C | 0.0075 |
| Will Argentina dollarize its economy before January 2025? | Politics | 408 | 761 | $468,169 | C | 0.0098 |
| Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Politics | 363 | 739 | $540,924 | F | 0.5837 |
| Will Sweden join NATO before January 2024? | Politics | 667 | 2,165 | $22,880 | F | 0.3390 |
| Will Biden and Trump debate before the 2024 US presidential election? | Politics | 182 | 1,483 | $587,605 | D- | 0.1180 |
| Will there be a US government shutdown or funding gap before March 20, 2025? | Politics | 66 | 1,825 | $9,826,688 | D- | 0.1380 |
| Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged before January 2025? | Culture | 365 | 1,487 | $552,016 | D- | 0.1340 |
| Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President? | Politics | 33 | 3,616 | $12,981,560 | F | 0.9351 |
| Will the South Korean President leave office before May 1, 2025? | Politics | 17 | 3,318 | $40,540,766 | F | 0.3631 |
| Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election? | Politics | 1,046 | 189 | $333,475 | F | 0.4146 |
| Will xAI have the top LLM on LMArena on March 1, 2025? | Technology | 72 | 1,653 | $1,749,240 | F | 0.8358 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024? | Economics | 333 | 1,635 | $461,426 | D- | 0.2128 |
| Will Derek Tran (D) win California's 45th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 250 | 509 | $1,704,707 | F | 0.3738 |
| Will Tim Sheehy (R) win the 2024 Montana Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 595 | $999,827 | D | 0.0879 |
| Will third-party candidates receive more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election? | Politics | 37 | 3,071 | $9,871,102 | F | 0.6379 |
| Will the World Health Organization declare H5N1 a pandemic before January 2025? | Science | 225 | 1,442 | $1,143,346 | B- | 0.0045 |
| Will the US ban TikTok before January 2026? | Politics | 416 | 574 | $338,368 | D- | 0.2494 |
| Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human trafficking in 2024? | Culture | 398 | 1,174 | $494,163 | D | 0.0570 |
| Will GPT-5 be announced before January 2025? | Technology | 513 | 987 | $417,694 | F | 0.3397 |
| Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | Sports | 298 | 1,481 | $522,273 | F | 0.4659 |
| Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on May 1, 2025? | Technology | 63 | 1,914 | $940,331 | D- | 0.1640 |
| Will Harris and Trump have a second debate? | Politics | 55 | 3,030 | $3,638,379 | C | 0.0106 |
| Will Marco Rubio be Trump's Secretary of State? | Politics | 189 | 526 | $1,797,279 | F | 0.4418 |
| Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | Politics | 91 | 1,982 | $2,622,897 | F | 0.8057 |
| Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Politics | 156 | 1,025 | $4,821,867 | F | 0.2524 |
| Will November 2024 be the hottest November on record? | Science | 133 | 709 | $2,000,563 | D | 0.0805 |
| Will Elissa Slotkin (D) win the 2024 Michigan Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 476 | $1,015,967 | D- | 0.1879 |
| Will Deb Fischer (R) win the 2024 Nebraska Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 418 | $1,222,808 | C- | 0.0194 |
| Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? | Politics | 930 | 463 | $101,606 | C | 0.0099 |
| Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before January 2024? | Politics | 409 | 1,744 | $183,542 | D+ | 0.0300 |
| Will Duke make the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 358 | 113 | $6,595,085 | D- | 0.1825 |
| Will Russia control Pokrovsk before January 2025? | Politics | 125 | 835 | $1,180,751 | B | 0.0042 |
| Will Florida make the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 358 | 88 | $10,482,047 | F | 0.3292 |
| Will Anora win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Anora | Culture | 130 | 1,454 | $274,036 | D- | 0.1249 |
| Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 130 | 1,027 | $547,055 | D- | 0.1877 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026? | Politics | 15 | 4,866 | $8,760,010 | F | 0.3209 |
| Will Kemi Badenoch be the leader of the UK Conservatives in 2024? | Politics | 456 | 510 | $185,228 | F | 0.3035 |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Politics | 154 | 774 | $750,261 | C- | 0.0210 |
| Is John McAfee alive as of 2024? | Economics | 335 | 823 | $585,947 | A | 0.0010 |
| Will Lai Ching-te (DPP) win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Politics | 135 | 556 | $1,810,399 | D- | 0.1177 |
| Will Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore leave the ISS before January 2025? | Science | 143 | 1,669 | $686,236 | A | 0.0015 |
| Will there be armed conflict between North Korea and South Korea in 2024? | Politics | 78 | 2,306 | $1,128,181 | C | 0.0113 |
| Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024? | Politics | 2,019 | 495 | $9,218 | D- | 0.1591 |
| Will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court in 2024? | Politics | 367 | 610 | $142,419 | C- | 0.0223 |
| Will there be another country to accept Bitcoin as legal tender before January 2025? | Politics | 379 | 834 | $338,275 | D- | 0.1710 |
| Will third-party candidates receive more than 10% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election? | Politics | 343 | 532 | $1,081,426 | D+ | 0.0410 |
| Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Science | 382 | 767 | $75,248 | F | 0.5843 |
| Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 128 | 934 | $388,374 | F | 0.3214 |
| Will there be a Russo-Ukraine ceasefire before January 2024? | Politics | 385 | 941 | $58,598 | C | 0.0101 |
| Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on April 1, 2025? | Technology | 40 | 1,819 | $912,124 | F | 0.5829 |
| Will Auburn make the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 356 | 67 | $8,472,883 | F | 0.3597 |
| Will cryptocurrency Solana ($SOL) reach a new all-time high before January 2025? | Economics | 318 | 673 | $637,599 | F | 0.3183 |
| Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in Canada before January 2025? | Politics | 287 | 416 | $364,645 | D+ | 0.0315 |
| Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023? | Culture | 193 | 1,282 | $100,749 | B+ | 0.0029 |
| Will Tammy Baldwin (D) win the 2024 Wisconsin Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 281 | $824,500 | D- | 0.1125 |
| Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 2025? | Politics | 129 | 936 | $322,118 | D- | 0.1419 |
| Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024? | Technology | 298 | 638 | $132,004 | D- | 0.1911 |
| Will Nick Begich III (R) win Alaska's at-large congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 250 | 381 | $501,777 | F | 0.3584 |
| Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? | Politics | 341 | 705 | $349,344 | D | 0.0911 |
| Will Taylor Swift announce she is pregnant before January 2025? | Culture | 374 | 937 | $162,295 | D+ | 0.0296 |
| Will Dune: Part Two win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 365 | 416 | $145,408 | D- | 0.1122 |
| Will Rick Scott (R) win the 2024 Florida Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 249 | $792,729 | C | 0.0105 |
| Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 130 | 529 | $671,269 | F | 0.4870 |
| Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law in 2024? | Politics | 231 | 876 | $450,119 | F | 0.3176 |
| Will Houston make the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 356 | 60 | $4,171,449 | F | 0.3329 |
| Will Google Maps display "Gulf of America" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026? | Politics | 23 | 1,875 | $1,101,890 | D- | 0.2204 |
| Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | Science | 286 | 715 | $262,612 | F | 0.3398 |
| Will Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 250 | 450 | $162,038 | D | 0.0731 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Culture | 87 | 1,963 | $85,062 | F | 0.7456 |
| Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Science | 386 | 469 | $79,824 | C- | 0.0158 |
| Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? | Politics | 1,786 | 245 | $8,504 | D- | 0.1354 |
| Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars? | Culture | 216 | 390 | $274,653 | D- | 0.2308 |
| Will there be more than 25 named tropical storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Science | 209 | 503 | $724,195 | C | 0.0139 |
| Will the super heavy booster from SpaceX's Starship Flight 7 be caught? | Science | 58 | 946 | $463,948 | D- | 0.1160 |
| Will Adam Neumann buy back WeWork in 2024? | Economics | 329 | 306 | $106,092 | C- | 0.0180 |
| Will Angela Alsobrooks (D) win the 2024 Maryland Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 173 | $446,005 | C- | 0.0173 |
| Will the winner of the 2024 presidential election also win the popular vote? | Politics | 900 | 130 | $61,411 | D- | 0.1119 |
| Will Mike Garcia (R) win California's 27th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 171 | $507,921 | F | 0.2810 |
| Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 129 | 315 | $425,865 | D | 0.0515 |
| Will the US ban TikTok before January 2024? | Politics | 477 | 1,007 | $4,013 | D | 0.0821 |
| Will Marie Perez (D) win Washington's 3rd congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 213 | $302,000 | D- | 0.2357 |
| Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard? | Culture | 513 | 163 | $128,069 | D | 0.0535 |
| Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in 2024? | Politics | 504 | 192 | $385,435 | D+ | 0.0317 |
| Will Daniel Penny be found guilty? | Politics | 50 | 607 | $464,598 | F | 0.3101 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals? | Sports | 295 | 671 | $61,768 | F | 0.3154 |
| Will room-temperature superconductivity be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal before January 2025? | Science | 518 | 160 | $281,862 | B+ | 0.0025 |
| Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on February 1, 2025? | Technology | 39 | 1,821 | $355,680 | C- | 0.0151 |
| Which movie will win the most Oscars at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 88 | 336 | $376,276 | F | 0.5356 |
| Will Russia have a nuclear weapon in Earth orbit before January 2025? | Politics | 322 | 591 | $49,970 | C | 0.0143 |
| Will Cillian Murphy win Best Actor at the 2024 Oscars? | Culture | 204 | 242 | $181,319 | D- | 0.1894 |
| Will Don Bacon (R) win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 232 | 149 | $313,702 | F | 0.2913 |
| Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Politics | 410 | 1,293 | $8,009 | D- | 0.1160 |
| Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Politics | 203 | 206 | $223,630 | C | 0.0082 |
| Will Conclave win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 130 | 375 | $123,498 | D | 0.0582 |
| Will David Valadao (R) win California's 22nd congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 178 | $194,388 | D- | 0.2073 |
| Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Economics | 919 | 145 | $17,705 | C | 0.0135 |
| Will Juan Ciscomani (R) win Arizona's 6th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 161 | $186,481 | D- | 0.1195 |
| Will the LK-99 room-temperature superconductor replicate? | Science | 7 | 1,275 | $3,594,640 | D+ | 0.0258 |
| Will the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President be a woman? | Politics | 311 | 195 | $294,028 | F | 0.3607 |
| Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Economics | 375 | 338 | $12,698 | D- | 0.2089 |
| Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | Technology | 50 | 1,380 | $38,432 | D+ | 0.0393 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2024 Premier League? | Sports | 284 | 433 | $61,435 | D- | 0.2482 |
| Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 156 | 141 | $122,910 | F | 0.3204 |
| Will there be a confirmed case of monkeypox in the US before September 2024? | Science | 16 | 1,529 | $1,332,771 | D+ | 0.0275 |
| Will Kevin McCarthy stay the Speaker of the House through 2023? | Politics | 272 | 385 | $16,790 | F | 0.6230 |
| Will Josh Hawley (R) win the 2024 Missouri Senate seat? | Politics | 583 | 68 | $84,895 | C- | 0.0169 |
| Will Flow win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 115 | 170 | $270,411 | F | 0.5605 |
| Will a coup take place in Russia before January 2024? | Politics | 654 | 1,404 | $842 | C | 0.0110 |
| Will Yadira Caraveo (D) win Colorado's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 99 | $200,025 | F | 0.3461 |
| Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Politics | 15 | 894 | $3,164,380 | B+ | 0.0023 |
| Will I'm Still Here win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 97 | 285 | $115,796 | F | 0.4330 |
| Will 2021 be the hottest year on record? | Science | 383 | 201 | $125,156 | D+ | 0.0366 |
| Will Arizona be the last state called in the 2024 Presidential election? | Politics | 97 | 130 | $554,828 | F | 0.5193 |
| Will Andy Kim (D) win the 2024 New Jersey Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 209 | $130,423 | C | 0.0079 |
| Will the Social Democratic party win the most seats in the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election? | Politics | 20 | 1,087 | $849,073 | D- | 0.1295 |
| Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023? | Culture | 207 | 1,231 | $7,473 | B+ | 0.0023 |
| Will the US enter a recession before January 2024? | Economics | 550 | 137 | $78,528 | D | 0.0575 |
| Will the recreational marijuana amendment pass in the November 2024 election? | Politics | 255 | 171 | $33,832 | F | 0.3678 |
| At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Politics | 376 | 963 | $2,938 | D | 0.1026 |
| Will Marsha Blackburn (R) win the 2024 Tennessee Senate seat? | Politics | 583 | 65 | $42,958 | C- | 0.0220 |
| Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty to murder? | Politics | 16 | 1,033 | $1,062,753 | D | 0.0709 |
| Will Section 230 be revoked or amended in the US before January 2025? | Politics | 1,065 | 79 | $7,703 | D | 0.0898 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through 2024? | Politics | 366 | 1,197 | $1,422 | D | 0.0921 |
| Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023? | Politics | 248 | 1,129 | $4,616 | D- | 0.1975 |
| Will Adam Schiff (D) win the 2024 California Senate seat? | Politics | 650 | 113 | $44,916 | D | 0.1068 |
| Will Roger Wicker (R) win the 2024 Mississippi Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 84 | $81,377 | B+ | 0.0026 |
| Will OpenAI reach a settlement with NYT before January 2025? | Technology | 370 | 265 | $21,987 | D | 0.1040 |
| Will Janelle Bynum (D) win Oregon's 5th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 123 | $50,162 | D- | 0.1174 |
| Will Amy Klobuchar (D) win the 2024 Minnesota Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 196 | $68,658 | C+ | 0.0074 |
| Will Bernie Sanders (D) win the 2024 Vermont Senate seat? | Politics | 583 | 102 | $46,827 | D- | 0.1964 |
| Will Tether collapse before January 2024? | Economics | 377 | 358 | $10,791 | D+ | 0.0310 |
| Will Mazie Hirono (D) win the 2024 Hawaii Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 202 | $51,363 | B | 0.0031 |
| Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? | Sports | 161 | 190 | $174,576 | F | 0.4891 |
| Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023? | Science | 377 | 819 | $1,971 | F | 0.4980 |
| Will Kirsten Gillibrand (D) win the 2024 New York Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 152 | $80,919 | B | 0.0038 |
| Will UConn win the 2025 Women's College Basketball D1 Championship? | Sports | 49 | 85 | $6,346,808 | F | 0.3911 |
| Will the WGA writer's strike end before October 2023? | Culture | 82 | 150 | $234,324 | F | 0.3553 |
| Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023? | Economics | 374 | 642 | $2,888 | D- | 0.2078 |
| Will Israel be at war with Hezbollah before January 2025? | Politics | 242 | 545 | $7,604 | D- | 0.1365 |
| Will Elizabeth Warren (D) win the 2024 Massachusetts Senate seat? | Politics | 252 | 111 | $160,915 | B | 0.0037 |
| Will Israel be at war with Hezbollah before January 2024? | Politics | 144 | 1,201 | $4,852 | D- | 0.1158 |
| Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2024? | Politics | 445 | 89 | $81,101 | C | 0.0078 |
| Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Economics | 366 | 964 | $851 | D+ | 0.0275 |
| Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Politics | 305 | 119 | $94,786 | D | 0.0554 |
| Will Nikola Jokić be the 2024 NBA MVP? | Sports | 490 | 58 | $137,877 | F | 0.3144 |
| Will Wicked win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 127 | 105 | $89,058 | D- | 0.1505 |
| Will Duke make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 353 | 10 | $6,004,482 | D | 0.0603 |
| Will John Curtis (R) win the 2024 Utah Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 68 | $49,357 | B+ | 0.0024 |
| Will Jeremy Corbyn win election to UK parliament in 2024? | Politics | 499 | 99 | $38,541 | F | 0.2772 |
| Will David Schweikert (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 87 | $37,267 | D- | 0.1494 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2024 Premier League? | Sports | 332 | 216 | $3,836 | F | 0.3100 |
| Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2024? | Economics | 622 | 28 | $255,166 | C- | 0.0184 |
| Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament in 2024? | Politics | 32 | 217 | $326,601 | D+ | 0.0355 |
| Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023? | Technology | 376 | 623 | $1,285 | D | 0.0895 |
| Will Houston make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 354 | 8 | $5,527,050 | D- | 0.2006 |
| Will Nayib Bukele win El Salvador's 2024 presidential election? | Politics | 413 | 57 | $117,576 | C | 0.0081 |
| Will Laura Gillen (D) win New York's 4th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 68 | $43,723 | D | 0.0508 |
| Will Zach Nunn (R) win Iowa's 3rd congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 229 | 75 | $36,218 | D- | 0.1478 |
| Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023? | Science | 375 | 391 | $2,732 | D- | 0.1946 |
| Will Sweden join NATO before January 2025? | Politics | 784 | 316 | $886 | B | 0.0039 |
| Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Economics | 365 | 967 | $326 | A- | 0.0020 |
| Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Politics | 150 | 1,375 | $1,115 | F | 0.2839 |
| Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Politics | 352 | 715 | $618 | D- | 0.2087 |
| Will Jim Banks (R) win the 2024 Indiana Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 48 | $43,382 | A- | 0.0020 |
| Will Florida make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 353 | 8 | $3,868,702 | D- | 0.2276 |
| Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Politics | 366 | 610 | $720 | C | 0.0123 |
| Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023? | Technology | 376 | 382 | $2,152 | F | 0.4455 |
| Will Sam Altman be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI? | Technology | 13 | 814 | $75,537 | D+ | 0.0272 |
| Will the World Health Organization declare H5N1 a pandemic before January 2024? | Politics | 338 | 314 | $3,725 | B- | 0.0051 |
| Will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court in 2023? | Politics | 381 | 97 | $28,864 | D+ | 0.0268 |
| Will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source in 2023? | Politics | 376 | 467 | $1,279 | C- | 0.0159 |
| Will Texas Tech make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 353 | 6 | $5,711,493 | D- | 0.2486 |
| Will the TIME Person of the Year in 2024 be the US president-elect? | Politics | 1,443 | 211 | $322 | D | 0.1067 |
| Will Auburn make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 354 | 6 | $5,364,690 | D- | 0.2077 |
| Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023? | Politics | 376 | 578 | $706 | A- | 0.0018 |
| Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023? | Politics | 376 | 506 | $912 | C | 0.0137 |
| Will Tim Kaine (D) win the 2024 Virginia Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 77 | $57,711 | C | 0.0081 |
| Will Scott Perry (R) win Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 56 | $30,753 | D | 0.1069 |
| Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Economics | 376 | 485 | $913 | D- | 0.2287 |
| Will Chris Murphy (D) win the 2024 Connecticut Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 66 | $70,688 | B+ | 0.0023 |
| Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023? | Politics | 376 | 394 | $1,309 | D | 0.0546 |
| Will Angus King (I) win the 2024 Maine Senate seat? | Politics | 209 | 68 | $113,095 | C+ | 0.0055 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Finals? | Sports | 369 | 158 | $8,617 | F | 0.7655 |
| Will Michigan State make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 354 | 5 | $5,426,031 | F | 0.3446 |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Politics | 340 | 1,537 | $102 | C | 0.0117 |
| Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Politics | 86 | 1,291 | $1,989 | F | 0.2534 |
| Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Science | 287 | 626 | $606 | F | 0.4217 |
| Will Josh Riley (D) win New York's 19th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 58 | $18,077 | F | 0.2599 |
| Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia? | Politics | 1,520 | 497 | $34 | B- | 0.0054 |
| Will Alabama make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 353 | 5 | $4,044,157 | F | 0.3332 |
| Will Jaylen Brown be the 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Sports | 78 | 198 | $69,345 | F | 0.7306 |
| Will the Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Sports | 69 | 179 | $102,113 | F | 0.2613 |
| Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2025? | Science | 372 | 53 | $33,193 | C- | 0.0171 |
| Will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos" in 2023? | Technology | 376 | 434 | $586 | C+ | 0.0056 |
| Will John Barrasso (R) win the 2024 Wyoming Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 35 | $26,496 | B+ | 0.0027 |
| Will Donald Trump be indicted on criminal charges in 2023? | Politics | 107 | 568 | $4,447 | D- | 0.1566 |
| Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Economics | 376 | 514 | $394 | D- | 0.1485 |
| Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Economics | 375 | 368 | $772 | D+ | 0.0328 |
| At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Politics | 376 | 368 | $755 | D+ | 0.0452 |
| Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023? | Politics | 376 | 411 | $584 | C | 0.0145 |
| Will Kevin Cramer (R) win the 2024 North Dakota Senate seat? | Politics | 309 | 34 | $19,476 | A | 0.0016 |
| Will Tennessee make it to the Elite Eight in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 354 | 5 | $2,454,762 | D- | 0.2412 |
| Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the US file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? | Economics | 2,153 | 207 | $44 | C- | 0.0240 |
| Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic box office records? | Sports | 45 | 190 | $152,570 | C | 0.0090 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year? | Culture | 278 | 548 | $485 | D | 0.1096 |
| Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | Politics | 1,201 | 591 | $22 | D- | 0.1106 |
| Will Martin Heinrich (D) win the 2024 New Mexico Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 54 | $30,840 | C | 0.0100 |
| Will a #1 seed win the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament? | Sports | 131 | 61 | $82,646 | D | 0.0853 |
| Will AI win a programming competition in 2023? | Technology | 376 | 415 | $340 | D- | 0.1585 |
| Will Lisa Blunt (D) win the 2024 Delaware Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 46 | $41,561 | B+ | 0.0027 |
| Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Politics | 366 | 477 | $206 | C | 0.0083 |
| Will Sheldon Whitehouse (D) win the 2024 Rhode Island Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 51 | $31,729 | B+ | 0.0024 |
| Will US CPI inflation average above 4% in 2023? | Economics | 376 | 281 | $667 | D- | 0.1152 |
| Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Technology | 12 | 369 | $381,075 | A+ | 0.0002 |
| Will Tether collapse before January 2023? | Economics | 353 | 384 | $429 | D+ | 0.0401 |
| At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Politics | 376 | 327 | $445 | C | 0.0117 |
| Will Pete Ricketts (R) win the 2024 Nebraska Special Election Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 26 | $20,352 | A+ | 0.0006 |
| Will the 2024 US Presidential Election be determined by the US Supreme Court? | Politics | 1,245 | 132 | $175 | C | 0.0149 |
| Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Economics | 376 | 297 | $503 | D+ | 0.0286 |
| Will Zoe Saldana win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Culture | 130 | 35 | $211,713 | D | 0.0693 |
| Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023? | Technology | 376 | 272 | $591 | F | 0.3564 |
| Will Susan Wild (D) win Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 31 | $18,735 | F | 0.2641 |
| Will the contents of the Matt Gaetz ethics report be made public before January 2025? | Politics | 48 | 160 | $75,283 | F | 0.2801 |
| Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023? | Culture | 376 | 293 | $463 | D- | 0.1372 |
| Will Jim Justice (R) win the 2024 West Virginia Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 43 | $24,747 | B | 0.0037 |
| Will any new country join NATO in 2023? | Politics | 107 | 524 | $1,464 | D+ | 0.0463 |
| Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Science | 851 | 156 | $235 | F | 0.7432 |
| Will the WGA writer's strike end before November 2023? | Culture | 82 | 90 | $70,180 | D- | 0.1729 |
| Will Donald Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026? | Politics | 938 | 188 | $124 | F | 0.2504 |
| Will WeWork announce bankruptcy before 2024? | Technology | 90 | 274 | $4,282 | F | 0.4829 |
| Will a state override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college for the 2024 US presidential election? | Politics | 1,185 | 105 | $126 | D+ | 0.0421 |
| Will Pope Francis remain Pope through 2023? | Politics | 273 | 80 | $4,532 | C- | 0.0165 |
| Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before January 2025? | Technology | 201 | 468 | $274 | F | 0.7232 |
| Will Maria Cantwell (D) win the 2024 Washington Senate seat? | Politics | 279 | 37 | $16,400 | A- | 0.0021 |
| Will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections before 2025? | Science | 1,772 | 215 | $11 | D- | 0.2049 |
| Haaland to break PL goal record this season? | Sports | 283 | 65 | $5,492 | D | 0.0716 |
| Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Politics | 1,232 | 152 | $43 | F | 0.2544 |
| Will third-party candidates receive more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election? | Politics | 1,357 | 220 | $16 | C- | 0.0229 |
| Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Sports | 1,087 | 95 | $136 | D- | 0.1321 |
| Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before January 2023? | Politics | 76 | 1,216 | $191 | D- | 0.1985 |
| Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Politics | 1,439 | 114 | $39 | D+ | 0.0406 |
| Will a new nuclear reactor be approved before January 2025? | Science | 433 | 11 | $45,236 | D+ | 0.0292 |
| Will Ken Calvert (R) win California's 41st congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 27 | $20,771 | D- | 0.1255 |
| Will Joe Manchin leave Senate Democratic leadership before November 6th 2024? | Politics | 376 | 8 | $103,642 | F | 0.4496 |
| Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces before April 2022? | Politics | 35 | 1,713 | $272 | D | 0.0537 |
| Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Politics | 382 | 457 | $29 | D+ | 0.0379 |
| Will Apple announce a foldable phone before January 2025? | Technology | 435 | 10 | $30,116 | B+ | 0.0022 |
| Will Google Gemini be available in Siri in 2024? | Technology | 254 | 15 | $37,971 | D- | 0.1228 |
| Will Jared Golden (D) win Maine's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 19 | $28,109 | D | 0.0716 |
| Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before January 2023? | Politics | 181 | 342 | $178 | D- | 0.2291 |
| Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas in May 2024? | Technology | 1,289 | 136 | $16 | D- | 0.1729 |
| Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Politics | 917 | 299 | $7 | C | 0.0087 |
| Will Matt Cartwright (D) win Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 19 | $21,829 | F | 0.3765 |
| Will Meta AI (Llama) be available in Siri in 2024? | Technology | 254 | 14 | $30,183 | F | 0.4962 |
| Will the European Commission propose a directive banning caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024? | Politics | 1,478 | 113 | $14 | F | 0.2677 |
| WIll Argentina end its central bank before January 2025? | Economics | 398 | 8 | $29,890 | C | 0.0120 |
| Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Politics | 931 | 188 | $9 | F | 0.3073 |
| Will OpenAI lose the top LLM Leaderboard spot in 2024? | Technology | 173 | 8 | $157,163 | D- | 0.1370 |
| Will any BARDA mask be available on Amazon for <$1 before 2025? | Science | 936 | 158 | $11 | D | 0.0511 |
| Will either candidate to the 2024 US presidential election concede in November? | Politics | 5 | 267 | $135,888 | D- | 0.1382 |
| Will the United States institute a military draft before 2025? | Politics | 1,812 | 149 | $3 | B+ | 0.0024 |
| Will Anthropic AI (Claude) be available in Siri in 2024? | Technology | 254 | 12 | $20,923 | D | 0.0719 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released before July 2024? | Technology | 44 | 99 | $11,573 | F | 0.7632 |
| Will Tom Barrett (R) win Michigan's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 236 | 14 | $13,355 | D | 0.0940 |
| Will Don Davis (D) win North Carolina's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election? | Politics | 231 | 12 | $17,886 | D | 0.0831 |
| Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded before January 2025? | Economics | 400 | 6 | $16,181 | D+ | 0.0295 |
| Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2024? | Science | 308 | 5 | $43,730 | D+ | 0.0303 |
| Will there be an armed conflict in the Balkans before 2025? | Politics | 873 | 82 | $10 | C | 0.0121 |
| Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Science | 936 | 142 | $2 | D+ | 0.0418 |
| Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran in 2023? | Politics | 84 | 250 | $83 | B- | 0.0052 |
| Will Joseph Kony be found before June 2024? | Politics | 30 | 33 | $34,796 | D+ | 0.0351 |
| Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Technology | 298 | 125 | $19 | D- | 0.1215 |
| Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Technology | 250 | 49 | $96 | C | 0.0091 |
| Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt? | Science | 36 | 150 | $157 | F | 0.3927 |
| Will Hurricane Milton become a Category 5 hurricane? | Science | 3 | 43 | $8,140 | F | 0.5390 |
| Will Starship achieve liftoff before May 2023? | Science | 4 | 93 | $168 | D | 0.0720 |