Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?
  • 382
  • 457
  • $29
The US rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023 is a closely watched event with several market predictions. These predictions are based on the likelihood that the United States will lift or waive sanctions previously mandated by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) before January 1, 2023. To qualify as resolved, this must be done through official announcements or credible media reports, not just conditional promises or agreements with Iran's reduction of nuclear production capacity. The markets expect a resolution criteria focused on official statements from either the US or Iranian governments, and resolutions are expected to occur regardless of whether these deals are agreed upon or not.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2022AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0473
-0.2453
0.9635
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0559
-0.2699
0.9552
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0184
-0.1458
0.9879
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0516
0.9986
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.026
-0.004
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0286
-0.1851
0.9799
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0483
-0.2481
0.9626
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0023
-0.0493
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0329
0.9994
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.026
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 382
  • 457
  • $29
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0379
-0.2152
0.9717
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0521
-0.2590
0.9589
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0104
-0.0976
0.9933
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0422
0.9990

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