Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?
  • 376
  • 506
  • $912
A lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023 requires a formal agreement that remains substantially in effect, or an informal one with at least a month of significant military action not occurring. Minor violations will not count as long as both sides and international media agree it is still substantially effective. A signed but broken cease-fire before January 1, 2024, will not be considered. The resolution time is set by Scott Alexander's judgment in his 2023 prediction contest. A de facto cease fire will be recognized if the international media labels it as such.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 377
  • 316
  • $912

5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0171
-0.1401
0.9889
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0179
-0.1435
0.9883
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0221
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0173
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.000
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 190

On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0103
-0.1068
0.9937
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0186
-0.1465
0.9878
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0193
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0124
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.002
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 506
  • $912
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0137
-0.1234
0.9913
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0182
-0.1450
0.9880
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0149
0.9999

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