Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
  • 169
  • 9,165
  • $56,544,926
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia must be announced by both countries within the timeframe of Trump taking office and April 19, 2025. The agreement must pertain to all theaters of military conflict and be declared through official channels by both countries for it to count towards resolution. A temporary end to the conflict is required, with a comprehensive ceasefire being more indicative of a resolution than a localized one. If Trump loses the presidential election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityDec2024Jan2025FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 166
  • 1,757
  • $52,942

Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0441
-0.2357
0.9664
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0486
-0.2489
0.9623
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0133
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.011
-0.004
  • Metaculus
  • 151
  • 124

Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0511
-0.2563
0.9599
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0391
-0.2202
0.9710
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0349
-0.2068
0.9746
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0387
0.9992
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.009
+0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 27
  • 7,284
  • $56,491,984

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0007
-0.0258
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0008
-0.0283
0.9996
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0256
-0.1744
0.9823
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0070
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.000
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 169
  • 9,165
  • $56,544,926
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0320
-0.1726
0.9753
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0295
-0.1658
0.9776
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0250
-0.1697
0.9826
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0197
0.9997

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