Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO before January 2025?
  • 1,083
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Ukraine's bid to join NATO is underway, with Russia pushing for guarantees that the former Soviet republic will not be allowed to join. The US and European allies insist that countries have the right to choose their own alliances and that NATO's "open door policy" applies. While some observers see Ukraine meeting membership requirements as unlikely, others believe Moscow's actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing. To resolve positively, Ukraine must officially join NATO before a specific deadline, with no room for being on the "path" towards membership. The resolution criteria is tied to an exact date: if Ukraine joins NATO by December 31, 2024, the outcome will be yes; otherwise, it will be no.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0460
-0.2414
0.9647
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0208
-0.1558
0.9861
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0554
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0554
0.9984
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.005
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 272
  • 2,202
  • $2,220,103

Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0253
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0015
-0.0393
0.9992
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0111
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0025
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.005
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 1,083
  • 2,311
  • $2,220,298
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0233
-0.1333
0.9822
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0112
-0.0976
0.9926
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0332
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0289
0.9992

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