Questions about the most popular movies, TV, music, games, celebrities, and the awards surrounding it all. More broadly, questions about demographics, cultural trends, and societal issues.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22 | F | 0.2996 | A- | -0.013 |
| Manifold | 30 | D- | 0.2325 | D- | +0.018 |
| Metaculus | 8 | D- | 0.2018 | F | +0.051 |
| Polymarket | 26 | D- | 0.1734 | B | -0.008 |
| Overall | 86 | D- | 0.2290 | D+ | 0.0052 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | F | +0.032 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.004 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | S | -0.177 |
| Manifold | F | +0.159 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.169 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.013 |
Predictions for financial markets, economic indicators, and cryptocurrency. Includes forecasts on inflation, interest rates, commodity prices, and major economic developments worldwide.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13 | D | 0.0727 | B+ | -0.008 |
| Manifold | 33 | D- | 0.1251 | D | +0.011 |
| Metaculus | 16 | D- | 0.1270 | C- | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | 16 | D- | 0.1245 | A- | -0.011 |
| Overall | 78 | D- | 0.1166 | C | 0.0016 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.023 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.009 |
| Polymarket | F | +0.043 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.007 |
| Metaculus | B | -0.007 |
| Polymarket | D- | +0.018 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Metaculus | C- | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.004 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.007 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Tracking electoral outcomes, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Covers national and international politics, including elections, conflicts, treaties, and major diplomatic developments.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 88 | D- | 0.1597 | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | 209 | D- | 0.1762 | D+ | +0.005 |
| Metaculus | 93 | D- | 0.1453 | C- | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | 157 | D- | 0.1627 | C+ | -0.001 |
| Overall | 547 | D- | 0.1644 | C | 0.0013 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | D | +0.009 |
| Manifold | D | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.036 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.032 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | F | +0.058 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.060 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.021 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.013 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.012 |
Following advances across scientific disciplines, from climate research to space exploration and biotechnology. When will the next advances happen, and how much of an impact will they have?
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 20 | D | 0.1046 | C- | +0.004 |
| Manifold | 30 | D- | 0.2010 | D+ | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | 14 | D- | 0.2446 | B | -0.007 |
| Polymarket | 16 | D | 0.0622 | A | -0.025 |
| Overall | 80 | D- | 0.1567 | B- | -0.0022 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.007 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | F | +0.105 |
| Manifold | A | -0.038 |
| Polymarket | S | -0.249 |
| Kalshi | F | +0.025 |
| Manifold | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | S | -0.085 |
Forecasting outcomes in professional athletics. Covers game results, championship predictions, player performance metrics, and olympic medals.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19 | F | 0.2825 | A- | -0.015 |
| Manifold | 35 | F | 0.4346 | D | +0.013 |
| Metaculus | 4 | F | 0.2536 | D- | +0.019 |
| Polymarket | 26 | F | 0.2633 | A- | -0.011 |
| Overall | 84 | F | 0.3386 | C+ | -0.0003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | D | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.024 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.017 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.023 |
| Polymarket | A+ | -0.040 |
Monitoring innovations in the tech industry such as new devices and AI capabilities. Also covers new advancements in tech such as blockchain, quantum computing, and virtual reality.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16 | F | 0.2997 | A- | -0.014 |
| Manifold | 27 | F | 0.2884 | D+ | +0.005 |
| Metaculus | 11 | D- | 0.1880 | D+ | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | 13 | D- | 0.1534 | C+ | -0.001 |
| Overall | 67 | D- | 0.2484 | C+ | -0.0008 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.002 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | D- | +0.022 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.029 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.021 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.008 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.022 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |