Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged before January 2025?
  • 365
  • 1,487
  • $552,016
Two major celebrities are said to potentially tie the knot before the end of 2024. The question is whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift will officially become engaged within the specific date range of February 11 to December 31, with a secondary consideration of consensus among credible reporting sources. A public announcement from either party or their representatives would be the decisive factor in resolving this market. The outcome hinges on a definitive confirmation that the couple is indeed engaged during the designated timeframe.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0788
-0.3295
0.9316
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0879
-0.3517
0.9215
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0238
-0.1676
0.9838
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0052
-0.0748
0.9970
Relative Score
A
-0.018
+0.039
+0.023
  • Polymarket
  • 325
  • 1,254
  • $551,481

Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1892
-0.5709
0.7924
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1023
-0.3853
0.9050
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0072
-0.0888
0.9957
Relative Score
D
+0.018
-0.039
-0.023
  • Overall
  • 365
  • 1,487
  • $552,016
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1340
-0.4502
0.8620
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0951
-0.3685
0.9132
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0224
-0.1621
0.9848
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0062
-0.0818
0.9964

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