Category: Technology
  • 67
  • 24,235
  • $7,696,816
Monitoring innovations in the tech industry such as new devices and AI capabilities. Also covers new advancements in tech such as blockchain, quantum computing, and virtual reality.
Platform Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Kalshi
16
F
0.2997
A-
-0.014
Manifold
27
F
0.2884
C
+0.005
Metaculus
11
D-
0.1880
C
+0.004
Polymarket
13
D-
0.1534
C+
-0.001
Overall
67
D-
0.2484
C+
-0.0008

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=9,769 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=9,769 markets

Source: brier.fyi

See all charts

Questions

Will GPT-5 be released before January 2025?
  • 5,346
  • $979,181
Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI before January 2025?
  • 1,897
  • $959,286
Kalshi
C+
-0.001
Manifold
C+
-0.000
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on January 1, 2025?
  • 1,996
  • $436,675
Kalshi
D
+0.022
Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
A-
-0.014
Will xAI have the top LLM on LMArena on March 1, 2025?
  • 1,653
  • $1,749,240
Kalshi
A
-0.029
Manifold
D
+0.021
Polymarket
C-
+0.008
Will GPT-5 be announced before January 2025?
  • 987
  • $417,694
Manifold
C-
+0.009
Polymarket
B+
-0.009
Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on May 1, 2025?
  • 1,914
  • $940,331
Kalshi
B
-0.005
Manifold
D
+0.022
Polymarket
B-
-0.002
See all questions