Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7396 | -1.9661 | 0.1607 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3105 | -0.8147 | 0.6221 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0484 | -0.2485 | 0.9624 |
Relative Score | A | -0.029 | +0.197 | +0.021 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8794 | -2.7767 | 0.0662 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6608 | -1.6763 | 0.2243 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9314 | -3.3549 | 0.0362 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1147 | -0.4134 | 0.8901 |
Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.078 | -0.019 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8883 | -2.8560 | 0.0609 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4894 | -1.2025 | 0.3946 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9614 | -3.9373 | 0.0199 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0267 | -0.1785 | 0.9814 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.138 | -0.005 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8358 | -2.5329 | 0.0959 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4869 | -1.2311 | 0.4137 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9464 | -3.6461 | 0.0280 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0633 | -0.2801 | 0.9447 |
Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
Manifold | D | +0.022 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
Kalshi | A | -0.018 |
Manifold | D | +0.017 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |