Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on January 1, 2025?
  • 384
  • 1,996
  • $436,675
This prediction is about determining which AI model will hold the top spot on December 31, 2024. The market resolution criteria is based on the highest arena score from the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31. If there's a tie for the top spot, the market resolves to the model whose name comes first alphabetically. An alternative resolution source would be used if the primary leaderboard becomes unavailable. The prediction focuses solely on whether Gemini will have the top AI model by that date.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 20
  • $30,742

What will be the top AI model this month?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2209
-0.6349
0.7482
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1214
-0.4283
0.8819
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0196
-0.1508
0.9870
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.055
-0.026
  • Manifold
  • 385
  • 800
  • $8,062

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)? | Google

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7961
-2.2278
0.1199
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6445
-1.6235
0.2386
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2588
-0.7108
0.6946
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0097
-0.1036
0.9941
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.005
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 14
  • 1,196
  • $397,871

Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0272
-0.1803
0.9810
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0381
-0.2173
0.9718
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0272
-0.1803
0.9810
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.040
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 384
  • 1,996
  • $436,675
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3481
-1.0143
0.6164
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2680
-0.7563
0.6974
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2588
-0.7108
0.6946
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0188
-0.1449
0.9874

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