Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1156 | -0.4155 | 0.8890 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1834 | -0.5590 | 0.8004 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1849 | -0.5621 | 0.7983 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1444 | -0.4780 | 0.8526 |
Relative Score | D | +0.017 | -0.033 | -0.026 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1583 | -0.5074 | 0.8342 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0657 | -0.2962 | 0.9454 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1583 | -0.5074 | 0.8342 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1583 | -0.5074 | 0.8342 |
Relative Score | A | -0.017 | +0.033 | +0.026 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1370 | -0.4614 | 0.8616 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1245 | -0.4276 | 0.8729 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1716 | -0.5348 | 0.8163 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1514 | -0.4927 | 0.8434 |
Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
Kalshi | A | -0.029 |
Manifold | D | +0.021 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.008 |
Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
Manifold | D | +0.022 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
Kalshi | A | -0.018 |
Manifold | D | +0.017 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |