Will OpenAI reach a settlement with NYT before January 2025?
  • 370
  • 265
  • $21,987
This market is about whether OpenAI reaches a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues before a certain deadline. The resolution criteria for this event are that the settlement must be announced by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET. If the market resolves to "Yes", it means the settlement was reached and announced within this timeframe. Otherwise, if the deadline passes without an announcement, the market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this event is a consensus of credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 298
  • 12
  • $29

[Polymarket] OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0797
-0.3317
0.9306
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0046
-0.0701
0.9974
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0041
-0.0663
0.9977
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.011
+0.009
  • Polymarket
  • 370
  • 253
  • $21,958

OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0784
-0.3285
0.9320
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1062
-0.3945
0.9003
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0429
0.9990
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.011
-0.009
  • Overall
  • 370
  • 265
  • $21,987
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1040
-0.3874
0.9018
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0930
-0.3631
0.9154
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0073
-0.0878
0.9956
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0546
0.9983

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