Will Sam Altman be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI?
  • 13
  • 814
  • $75,537
The market is about predicting who will be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI after Sam Altman. The resolution criteria depends on whoever is officially announced as the permanent, non-interim CEO. The market resolves to "Other" if a candidate suddenly surges in popularity and reaches 100%. If OpenAI ceases to exist or undergoes significant restructuring, the market will resolve to "None".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability19Nov2123252729

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 3
  • $67,585

Will Sam Altman be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI? | Sam Altman

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0784
-0.3285
0.9320
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0963
-0.3715
0.9120
Relative Score
S
-0.106
+0.217
+0.145
  • Manifold
  • 14
  • 742
  • $7,952

Who will be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI? | Sam Altman

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0022
-0.0486
0.9988
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0657
-0.2962
0.9454
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0391
0.9992
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.001
+0.008
  • Metaculus
  • 13
  • 72

Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0316
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0758
-0.3219
0.9348
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0380
0.9992
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.030
-0.029
  • Overall
  • 13
  • 814
  • $75,537
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0272
-0.1362
0.9768
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0793
-0.3299
0.9307
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0386
0.9992

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