Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?
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Sam Altman was removed as CEO of OpenAI due to the board's lack of confidence in his ability to lead the company, following a deliberative review process that found him to be "not consistently candid" in his communications with the board. He expressed love for his time at OpenAI after being let go. The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as CEO and returns before January 1, 2026, and No if he is not returned to the role by that date. A consensus of credible reporting from official statements and reputable sources will determine the outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability19Nov2123252729

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0003
-0.0162
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0492
-0.2507
0.9617
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0214
0.9998
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.016
+0.012
  • Polymarket
  • 11
  • 190
  • $381,075

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0131
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0359
-0.2100
0.9738
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0243
0.9997
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.016
-0.012
  • Overall
  • 12
  • 369
  • $381,075
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0147
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0425
-0.2303
0.9678
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0229
0.9997

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