Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before January 2025?
  • 201
  • 468
  • $274
Elon Musk has built a substantial equity stake in Twitter, becoming the social media site's largest shareholder. He was expected to be appointed to the company's board of directors but announced on April 10, 2022, that he would not join the board without explanation. Musk indicated a desire to make significant improvements to Twitter in coming months and holds a position carrying powers similar to those of a corporate CEO. The question resolves as Yes if Musk becomes CEO of Twitter between April 1, 2022, and January 1, 2025, or has held such a position prior to that date. This resolution criteria captures the spirit of the markets, which essentially ask whether Musk will become Twitter's CEO within the specified timeframe.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2022JunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8468
-2.5282
0.0864
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4231
-1.0511
0.4734
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6134
-1.5286
0.2668
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1970
-0.5867
0.7816
Relative Score
F
+0.038
-0.139
-0.031
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5997
-1.4890
0.2797
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3871
-0.9732
0.5191
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5727
-1.4139
0.3059
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2279
-0.6490
0.7383
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.139
+0.031
  • Overall
  • 201
  • 468
  • $274
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7232
-2.0086
0.1831
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4051
-1.0122
0.4962
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5931
-1.4713
0.2864
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2125
-0.6179
0.7599

Similar Questions

  • 4,024
  • $2,191,363

Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 2,174
  • $552,012

Manifold
C+
-0.002
Metaculus
C
+0.003
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
  • 893
  • $641,834

Kalshi
A-
-0.012
Manifold
D+
+0.012
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 1,982
  • $2,622,897

Kalshi
C-
+0.008
Polymarket
B
-0.008
  • 1,129
  • $4,616

Manifold
F
+0.037
Metaculus
A
-0.037
  • 514
  • $394

Manifold
A
-0.017
Metaculus
D
+0.017