Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8468 | -2.5282 | 0.0864 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4231 | -1.0511 | 0.4734 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6134 | -1.5286 | 0.2668 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1970 | -0.5867 | 0.7816 |
Relative Score | F | +0.038 | -0.139 | -0.031 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5997 | -1.4890 | 0.2797 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3871 | -0.9732 | 0.5191 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5727 | -1.4139 | 0.3059 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2279 | -0.6490 | 0.7383 |
Relative Score | A | -0.038 | +0.139 | +0.031 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7232 | -2.0086 | 0.1831 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4051 | -1.0122 | 0.4962 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5931 | -1.4713 | 0.2864 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2125 | -0.6179 | 0.7599 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |