Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023?
  • 248
  • 1,129
  • $4,616
The market questions ask whether Donald Trump made at least one approved tweet in 2023. An approved tweet is defined as a post written with Trump's implied approval, even if an intern wrote it. The resolution criteria exclude hacked accounts or tweets that appear to be without Trump's approval. The outcome will be determined by Scott Alexander's judgment, as stated in his future posts related to the contest. If an approved tweet was made, the market resolves positively; otherwise, it remains unresolved.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023FebMarAprMayJunJulAug

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2426
-0.6784
0.7175
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4576
-1.1284
0.4315
Relative Score
F
+0.037
-0.077
-0.051
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1140
-0.4120
0.8909
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1625
-0.5159
0.8288
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2832
-0.7596
0.6603
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4851
-1.1922
0.3995
Relative Score
A
-0.037
+0.077
+0.051
  • Overall
  • 248
  • 1,129
  • $4,616
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1975
-0.5835
0.7772
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2025
-0.5972
0.7731
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2820
-0.7573
0.6619
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4713
-1.1603
0.4155

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