Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2809 | -0.7550 | 0.6635 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2426 | -0.6784 | 0.7175 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2809 | -0.7550 | 0.6635 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4576 | -1.1284 | 0.4315 |
Relative Score | F | +0.037 | -0.077 | -0.051 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1140 | -0.4120 | 0.8909 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1625 | -0.5159 | 0.8288 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2832 | -0.7596 | 0.6603 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4851 | -1.1922 | 0.3995 |
Relative Score | A | -0.037 | +0.077 | +0.051 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1975 | -0.5835 | 0.7772 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2025 | -0.5972 | 0.7731 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2820 | -0.7573 | 0.6619 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4713 | -1.1603 | 0.4155 |
Kalshi | C | +0.000 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.004 |
Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
Manifold | F | +0.037 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |