At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
  • 376
  • 963
  • $2,938
A prediction is being made about the likelihood of Donald Trump being named the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024 at the end of 2023. The resolution criteria involve a deadline of January 1, 2024, and if one platform is no longer credible, another will be used with the most traders. This prediction contest is governed by Scott Alexander's judgment, as outlined on his blog Astral Codex Ten. An alternative source will be selected if Polymarket or Manifold markets are not available and deemed credible. The outcome of this prediction will have a direct impact on Scott Alexander's track record.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 377
  • 810
  • $2,938

17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0961
-0.3711
0.9122
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0844
-0.3433
0.9254
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0229
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0114
0.9999
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.024
+0.011
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 153

On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1090
-0.4008
0.8969
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1060
-0.3940
0.9005
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0055
-0.0769
0.9968
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0401
0.9992
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.024
-0.011
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 963
  • $2,938
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1026
-0.3859
0.9046
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0952
-0.3687
0.9129
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0030
-0.0499
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0257
0.9996

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