At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
  • 376
  • 368
  • $755
A resolution of "yes" implies that at least 50% of the total value on Ron DeSantis' bet has moved to his side or that a majority of the market participants believe DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024, as determined by the designated authority. If the designated authority stops using their judgment or if Polymarket or Manifold markets become unavailable and are no longer credible, an alternative source will be selected based on which market has the most traders. The resolution criteria may vary depending on the platform used to resolve the question. This prediction contest aims to answer a high-level question about the future outcome of a political event in 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0525
-0.2602
0.9586
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0634
-0.2899
0.9478
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0220
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0147
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.016
+0.010
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0379
-0.2166
0.9720
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0692
-0.3053
0.9418
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0276
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0189
0.9998
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.016
-0.010
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 368
  • $755
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0452
-0.2384
0.9653
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0663
-0.2976
0.9448
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0248
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0168
0.9999

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