Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4468 | -1.1040 | 0.4443 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0560 | -0.2701 | 0.9551 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5710 | -1.4092 | 0.3077 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4407 | -1.0902 | 0.4518 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6084 | -1.5141 | 0.2715 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5683 | -1.4018 | 0.3104 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5985 | -1.4855 | 0.2809 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5087 | -1.2490 | 0.3731 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.036 | -0.093 | -0.039 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4422 | -1.0936 | 0.4499 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4615 | -1.1373 | 0.4269 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5416 | -1.3315 | 0.3378 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3636 | -0.9238 | 0.5499 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.032 | +0.079 | +0.035 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4992 | -1.2373 | 0.3886 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3619 | -0.9364 | 0.5642 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5703 | -1.4087 | 0.3088 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4377 | -1.0877 | 0.4582 |
| Manifold | D | +0.021 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.013 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.012 |