Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
  • 305
  • 119
  • $94,786
This market resolves to "Yes" if former president Donald J. Trump wins the greatest share of apportioned delegates in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses, with a tiebreaker using the popular vote if necessary. If Trump ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates, the higher final popular vote number determines the outcome. The market will resolve to "No" if no 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses take place or if Trump does not win the greatest share of apportioned delegates and has a lower final popular vote number. The resolution source is initially the first announcement from the Iowa Republican party, but may be adjusted based on credible reporting consensus. If multiple credible sources report conflicting results, the market will resolve accordingly to "Yes" or "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 100
  • 35
  • $454

Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0482
-0.2480
0.9626
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0277
-0.1819
0.9807
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0211
-0.1569
0.9859
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.030
-0.006
  • Polymarket
  • 306
  • 84
  • $94,332

Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0698
-0.3069
0.9411
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0031
-0.0571
0.9983
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.030
+0.006
  • Overall
  • 305
  • 119
  • $94,786
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0554
-0.2678
0.9556
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0487
-0.2444
0.9609
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0151
-0.1284
0.9902
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0028
-0.0542
0.9984

Similar Questions

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
  • 7,506
  • $156,704,030
Kalshi
C
+0.001
Manifold
F
+0.036
Polymarket
A
-0.032
Will a Republican win the Nevada Presidential Election?
  • 3,236
  • $11,876,513
Kalshi
C
+0.003
Manifold
C
+0.003
Polymarket
B-
-0.002
Will a Republican win the Wisconsin Presidential Election?
  • 2,956
  • $8,252,186
Kalshi
B-
-0.003
Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will the winner of the 2024 presidential election also win the popular vote?
  • 130
  • $61,411
Kalshi
D-
+0.026
Manifold
A
-0.025
Metaculus
D-
+0.025
Will Don Bacon (R) win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 149
  • $313,702
Kalshi
C-
+0.009
Manifold
F
+0.102
Polymarket
S
-0.114
Will Zach Nunn (R) win Iowa's 3rd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 75
  • $36,218
Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
B+
-0.009
Polymarket
D+
+0.011