Will Don Bacon (R) win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 232
  • 149
  • $313,702
If Don Bacon (R) wins Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election, any equivalent markets created on other platforms will resolve to "Yes". Markets may be set up with different resolution criteria, such as requiring a specific margin of victory or using projections from different sources. For example, some markets might resolve to "No" if Don Bacon (R) loses by a certain margin or if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Other markets may use more nuanced criteria, considering factors such as party affiliation, nominee status, and official certification. Markets resolving to "Yes" typically imply that Don Bacon (R) will be re-elected, while those resolving to "No" suggest an upset for either Republican or Democratic candidates.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4784
-1.1765
0.4072
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0073
-0.0896
0.9956
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5778
-1.4276
0.3010
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.023
-0.009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2232
-0.6396
0.7449
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2583
-0.7097
0.6954
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5286
-1.2984
0.3515
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5286
-1.2984
0.3515
Relative Score
F
+0.102
-0.230
-0.129
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1722
-0.5361
0.8156
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0561
-0.2704
0.9550
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0110
-0.1109
0.9932
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
Relative Score
S
-0.114
+0.257
+0.143
  • Overall
  • 232
  • 149
  • $313,702
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2913
-0.7841
0.6559
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1073
-0.3566
0.8820
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1800
-0.4765
0.7815
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3758
-0.9609
0.5461

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