Will Deb Fischer (R) win the 2024 Nebraska Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 418
  • $1,222,808
This market resolves to "Yes" if Deb Fischer wins the 2024 Nebraska Senate seat. The outcome is determined by the official certification of the election results. If another Republican candidate wins the seat, the market still resolves to "Yes". The resolution source for this market is the official certification, with some flexibility in case of a tie among top news organizations. A candidate's affiliation is based on their party nomination or listed preference.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 89
  • $642,475

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0517
-0.2579
0.9594
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0076
-0.0915
0.9954
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0575
-0.2741
0.9537
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0354
-0.2085
0.9742
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.001
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 77
  • $322

Nebraska US Senate Race 2024: Dan Osborn vs. Deb Fischer | Deb Fischer (Republican Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0009
-0.0309
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0094
-0.1018
0.9943
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0842
-0.3428
0.9256
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1202
-0.4258
0.8833
Relative Score
C
+0.002
+0.003
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 341
  • $580,011

Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0134
-0.1229
0.9916
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0550
-0.2672
0.9561
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0574
-0.2738
0.9538
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.008
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 418
  • $1,222,808
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0194
-0.1222
0.9852
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0101
-0.1054
0.9938
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0656
-0.2947
0.9452
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0710
-0.3027
0.9371

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