Will Tammy Baldwin (D) win the 2024 Wisconsin Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 281
  • $824,500
This market resolves to "Yes" if Tammy Baldwin or any other representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Wisconsin for the term beginning in 2025. The resolution criteria are based on the outcome of the 2024 Wisconsin US Senate election, with the market resolving to "No" otherwise. In the event of a tie among the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC sources, the market will resolve based on official certification. Candidate party affiliation is considered if they switch after the beginning of Election Day in local time. The market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5, with some flexibility for early resolution by major news organizations.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 89
  • $568,526

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Wisconsin? | :: or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1264
-0.4394
0.8756
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0129
-0.1206
0.9919
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0402
-0.2239
0.9699
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1345
-0.4569
0.8654
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.008
+0.004
  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 70
  • $208

Wisconsin US Senate Race: Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde | Tammy Baldwin (Democratic Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1150
-0.4142
0.8897
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0814
-0.3358
0.9288
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0398
-0.2225
0.9703
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1117
-0.4068
0.8937
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.013
-0.006
  • Polymarket
  • 218
  • 211
  • $255,766

Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0961
-0.3711
0.9122
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0706
-0.3089
0.9403
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0397
-0.2221
0.9704
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1260
-0.4385
0.8761
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.012
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 281
  • $824,500
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1125
-0.4082
0.8925
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0550
-0.2551
0.9537
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0399
-0.2228
0.9702
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1241
-0.4341
0.8784

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