Will Marsha Blackburn (R) win the 2024 Tennessee Senate seat?
  • 583
  • 65
  • $42,958
This market resolves to "Yes" if Marsha Blackburn or another Republican is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2025, and "No" otherwise. It also resolves to "Yes" if the Republican nominee wins the 2024 Tennessee US Senate election, based on official certification from reputable sources such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution criteria are tied to the outcome of the November 5, 2024, general elections in the United States. A party's representation is determined by whether its nominee or a candidate with an identifiable party preference appears on the ballot. If all three sources agree on the winner, the market resolves; otherwise, it settles based on official certification.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $2,078

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Tennessee? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0004
-0.0198
0.9998
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.003
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 585
  • 15
  • $126

Will Marsha Blackburn win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Tennessee?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0618
-0.2858
0.9494
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0448
-0.2378
0.9658
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0293
-0.1876
0.9794
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0137
-0.1247
0.9913
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.077
-0.012
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 50
  • $40,755

Will a Republican win Tennessee US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0029
-0.0553
0.9984
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
A-
-0.016
+0.076
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 583
  • 65
  • $42,958
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0220
-0.1210
0.9823
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0160
-0.1043
0.9880
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0099
-0.0728
0.9930
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0047
-0.0516
0.9970

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