Will Roger Wicker (R) win the 2024 Mississippi Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 84
  • $81,377
If Roger Wicker (R) wins the 2024 Mississippi Senate seat by being sworn in as a Senator of Mississippi for the term beginning in 2025, or if he is replaced by another Republican senator due to his affiliation switching after Election Day and the next inaugurated senator is from the same party, then Yes. The market resolves based on the outcome determined by local, state, and federal governments, and may resolve early if a major news organization calls the race in favor of a Republican candidate. A candidate who wins the 2024 Mississippi US Senate election and has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference is considered to represent a party for this purpose. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with the market resolving once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If not, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0323
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0002
-0.0128
0.9999
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.001
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0012
-0.0355
0.9993
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0012
-0.0357
0.9993
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0346
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0346
0.9994
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.016
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0042
-0.0671
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0325
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0289
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.016
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 84
  • $81,377
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0026
-0.0486
0.9985
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0019
-0.0385
0.9990
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0257
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0313
0.9995

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