Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0010 | -0.0323 | 0.9995 |
Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0128 | 0.9999 |
30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.001 | +0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0012 | -0.0355 | 0.9993 |
Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0012 | -0.0357 | 0.9993 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0346 | 0.9994 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0346 | 0.9994 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.002 | +0.016 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0042 | -0.0671 | 0.9976 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0325 | 0.9995 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0289 | 0.9996 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.016 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0026 | -0.0486 | 0.9985 |
Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0019 | -0.0385 | 0.9990 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0257 | 0.9996 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0313 | 0.9995 |
Kalshi | A | -0.017 |
Manifold | A | -0.021 |
Polymarket | D- | +0.029 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |