Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0251 | -0.1725 | 0.9827 |
Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0054 | -0.0761 | 0.9969 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0380 | -0.2168 | 0.9719 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0284 | -0.1844 | 0.9801 |
Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1126 | -0.4088 | 0.8926 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.1006 | -0.3815 | 0.9070 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0306 | -0.1924 | 0.9782 |
7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0238 | -0.1675 | 0.9838 |
Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.045 | +0.027 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1260 | -0.4385 | 0.8761 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1272 | -0.4410 | 0.8746 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0484 | -0.2485 | 0.9624 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0256 | -0.1744 | 0.9823 |
Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.044 | -0.027 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0879 | -0.3399 | 0.9171 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0777 | -0.2995 | 0.9262 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0390 | -0.2192 | 0.9709 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0259 | -0.1754 | 0.9821 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |