Will Jacky Rosen (D) win the 2024 Nevada Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 807
  • $3,694,527
This market resolves to "Yes" if Jacky Rosen or another representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nevada for the term beginning in 2025. The resolution criteria are based on the outcome of the election, with the winning party determined by the local, state, and federal governments. If the race is called by major news organizations before Election Day, November 5, the market may resolve early. The outcome is also affected if a candidate switches parties after the beginning of Election Day, as long as it occurs before the official certification. Ultimately, the resolution source relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to call the race for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0607
-0.2829
0.9505
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0062
-0.0819
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0585
-0.2769
0.9527
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.002
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0969
-0.3729
0.9112
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1089
-0.4006
0.8970
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0577
-0.2747
0.9535
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0348
-0.2066
0.9747
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.010
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1593
-0.5094
0.8329
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0994
-0.3788
0.9083
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0495
-0.2517
0.9614
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.007
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 807
  • $3,694,527
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1057
-0.3884
0.8982
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0715
-0.2871
0.9339
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0297
-0.1806
0.9778
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0476
-0.2450
0.9629

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