Will John Curtis (R) win the 2024 Utah Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 68
  • $49,357
This market resolves to "Yes" if John Curtis (R) is sworn in as a Senator of Utah for the term beginning in 2025. In the case where the race is called by major news organizations, such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, the market may resolve early. If a Republican wins the popular vote on Election Day, November 5, 2024, but later switches parties or the next inaugurated Senator is from another party, the market will still resolve to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the official certification if all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0004
-0.0205
0.9998
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A+
-0.045
+0.129
+0.050
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0021
-0.0465
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0384
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0384
0.9992
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.010
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0034
-0.0597
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0064
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0187
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.012
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 68
  • $49,357
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0024
-0.0483
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0019
-0.0422
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0217
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0258
0.9996

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