Will Ted Cruz (R) win the 2024 Texas Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 539
  • $2,749,933
This market resolves to "Yes" if Ted Cruz or another representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2025. The resolution criteria are tied to the outcome of the November 5, 2024, election, with the decision ultimately made by local, state, and federal governments. If the market is called by major news organizations before Election Day, it may resolve early. The market considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time of nomination or ballot listing as definitive. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with the market resolving once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0330
-0.2006
0.9762
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0064
-0.0832
0.9963
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0293
-0.1876
0.9794
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0340
-0.2038
0.9754
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.010
-0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0118
-0.1150
0.9927
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0257
-0.1748
0.9822
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0575
-0.2742
0.9537
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0243
-0.1693
0.9834
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.005
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0235
-0.1664
0.9840
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0286
-0.1853
0.9799
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0371
-0.2138
0.9727
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.003
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 539
  • $2,749,933
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0193
-0.1459
0.9868
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0185
-0.1415
0.9875
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0385
-0.2157
0.9710
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0318
-0.1956
0.9772

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