Will Tim Kaine (D) win the 2024 Virginia Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 77
  • $57,711
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Kaine wins the 2024 Virginia Senate election, and "No" otherwise. The resolution criteria are tied to the outcome of the election, with a Democrat winning being the determining factor. If a candidate switches parties after Election Day, this change is disregarded for the purposes of market resolution. The market will initially resolve based on early news calls by Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, but may later update if these sources confirm the same outcome. Ultimately, the market's resolution will be determined by official certification from the relevant authorities.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0029
-0.0552
0.9984
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0044
-0.0688
0.9975
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0027
-0.0534
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0428
0.9990
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.016
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0082
-0.0946
0.9951
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.016
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 77
  • $57,711
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0887
0.9950
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0063
-0.0817
0.9963
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0497
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0027
-0.0524
0.9985

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