Will Andy Kim (D) win the 2024 New Jersey Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 209
  • $130,423
The markets cover the outcome of the 2024 New Jersey Senate election, predicting whether Andy Kim (D) will win the seat. The resolution criteria vary between platforms: one market resolves to the party winning the popular vote as determined by local and federal governments, while another directly resolves to "Yes" if a Democrat wins the election. A third market considers the candidate's party affiliation, resolving based on the official certification if all major news organizations don't call the race for the same candidate. Markets may resolve early if the race is called by major news organizations, or wait until Election Day (November 5) to resolve. The outcome of the markets will depend on the eventual winner of the election as determined by these resolution sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0037
-0.0625
0.9979
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0505
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0310
0.9995
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.015
+0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0096
-0.1032
0.9941
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.015
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 209
  • $130,423
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0079
-0.0867
0.9951
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0066
-0.0829
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0027
-0.0535
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0023
-0.0464
0.9987

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