Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0047 | -0.0713 | 0.9973 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0073 | -0.0894 | 0.9957 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0432 | 0.9990 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0011 | -0.0343 | 0.9994 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.001 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0100 | -0.1054 | 0.9939 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0061 | -0.0817 | 0.9964 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0228 | 0.9997 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0013 | -0.0372 | 0.9993 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0074 | -0.0883 | 0.9956 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0067 | -0.0855 | 0.9960 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0011 | -0.0330 | 0.9994 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0357 | 0.9993 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |