Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1269 | -0.4403 | 0.8750 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0115 | -0.1137 | 0.9928 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0463 | -0.2423 | 0.9644 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0888 | -0.3539 | 0.9204 |
Relative Score | B | -0.008 | +0.019 | +0.009 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1196 | -0.4243 | 0.8841 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.1048 | -0.3911 | 0.9020 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0539 | -0.2641 | 0.9572 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0876 | -0.3510 | 0.9218 |
Relative Score | D | +0.016 | -0.038 | -0.018 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3173 | -0.8286 | 0.6126 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0745 | -0.3186 | 0.9362 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0518 | -0.2581 | 0.9593 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0992 | -0.3783 | 0.9085 |
Relative Score | A- | -0.014 | +0.035 | +0.016 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1879 | -0.5644 | 0.7906 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0636 | -0.2745 | 0.9437 |
30 Days Before Close | D | 0.0506 | -0.2549 | 0.9603 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0919 | -0.3611 | 0.9169 |
Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |