Will Elissa Slotkin (D) win the 2024 Michigan Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 476
  • $1,015,967
If Elissa Slotkin (D) wins the 2024 Michigan Senate seat, a "Yes" outcome will be recorded. The resolution criteria vary among markets: some require confirmation from major news organizations like the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, while others rely on official certification or a party's nominee/ballot-listed preference. In the case of a candidate switching parties after Election Day, that switch won't affect the outcome as long as it happens before then. The markets consider events up to Election Day in November 2024, but may resolve early if a major news organization calls the race for the winner.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1269
-0.4403
0.8750
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0115
-0.1137
0.9928
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0463
-0.2423
0.9644
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0888
-0.3539
0.9204
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.019
+0.009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1196
-0.4243
0.8841
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1048
-0.3911
0.9020
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0539
-0.2641
0.9572
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0876
-0.3510
0.9218
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.038
-0.018
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3173
-0.8286
0.6126
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0745
-0.3186
0.9362
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0518
-0.2581
0.9593
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0992
-0.3783
0.9085
Relative Score
A-
-0.014
+0.035
+0.016
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 476
  • $1,015,967
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1879
-0.5644
0.7906
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0636
-0.2745
0.9437
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0919
-0.3611
0.9169

Similar Questions

  • 807
  • $3,694,527

Kalshi
C
+0.001
Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
  • 595
  • $999,827

Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
A
-0.021
Polymarket
D
+0.021
  • 281
  • $824,500

Kalshi
B-
-0.003
Manifold
C-
+0.005
Polymarket
B
-0.005
  • 65
  • $42,958

Kalshi
C+
-0.000
Manifold
D
+0.016
Polymarket
A-
-0.016
  • 196
  • $68,658

Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 77
  • $57,711

Manifold
B-
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002