| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 88 | D- | 0.1597 | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | 209 | D- | 0.1762 | C- | +0.005 |
| Metaculus | 93 | D- | 0.1453 | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | 157 | D- | 0.1627 | C+ | -0.001 |
| Overall | 547 | D- | 0.1644 | C | 0.0013 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=39,230 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=39,230 markets
Source: brier.fyi
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.009 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.036 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.032 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | F | +0.058 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.060 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | D | +0.021 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.013 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.012 |