Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?
  • 1,163
  • 4,075
  • $9,515,651
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? If Republicans secure at least 218 seats out of 435 by the end of reliable media reports on the 2024 elections, they will be considered to have won control. The resolution criteria is based on party affiliation, including independent candidates who caucus with either party. In the event of ongoing ambiguity or an unaligned third-party candidate winning seats, the question may resolve ambiguously until the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting or official determination of election results, whichever comes first.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 143
  • $1,537,259

Will Republicans win the House?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3600
-0.9163
0.5547
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0545
-0.2658
0.9567
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3969
-0.9943
0.5064
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1827
-0.5577
0.8013
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.013
+0.009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3607
-0.9178
0.5537
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3500
-0.8955
0.5681
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4048
-1.0112
0.4964
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3185
-0.8309
0.6111
Relative Score
F
+0.058
-0.121
-0.078
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1441
-0.4775
0.8529
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1713
-0.5342
0.8169
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2863
-0.7658
0.6559
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2994
-0.7923
0.6376
Relative Score
A+
-0.060
+0.123
+0.081
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2401
-0.6733
0.7211
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2803
-0.7538
0.6643
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3803
-0.9589
0.5279
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2116
-0.6162
0.7612
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.003
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 1,163
  • 4,075
  • $9,515,651
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2762
-0.7462
0.6706
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2140
-0.6123
0.7515
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3671
-0.9325
0.5467
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2531
-0.6993
0.7028

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