Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3600 | -0.9163 | 0.5547 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0545 | -0.2658 | 0.9567 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3969 | -0.9943 | 0.5064 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1827 | -0.5577 | 0.8013 |
Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.013 | +0.009 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3607 | -0.9178 | 0.5537 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3500 | -0.8955 | 0.5681 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4048 | -1.0112 | 0.4964 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3185 | -0.8309 | 0.6111 |
Relative Score | F | +0.058 | -0.121 | -0.078 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1441 | -0.4775 | 0.8529 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1713 | -0.5342 | 0.8169 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2863 | -0.7658 | 0.6559 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2994 | -0.7923 | 0.6376 |
Relative Score | A+ | -0.060 | +0.123 | +0.081 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.2401 | -0.6733 | 0.7211 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.2803 | -0.7538 | 0.6643 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3803 | -0.9589 | 0.5279 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2116 | -0.6162 | 0.7612 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.003 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2762 | -0.7462 | 0.6706 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2140 | -0.6123 | 0.7515 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3671 | -0.9325 | 0.5467 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2531 | -0.6993 | 0.7028 |
Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
Manifold | F | +0.039 |
Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | F | +0.051 |
Polymarket | A | -0.037 |
Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
Manifold | C | +0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |