Will Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 250
  • 450
  • $162,038
This market contains competitive US House Races. The current balance of power is 217 Republican Party members, 214 Democratic Party members, and 5 vacancies. A member of the Republican Party winning a house race resolves YES in this market, while a member of the Democratic Party winning a race resolves NO. If no party affiliation can be determined for a non-party candidate, they are considered to caucus with the major party they are expected to join; thus, races won by such individuals will be resolved 50-50.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $69,511

Will Republican win the House race for IA-1? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0051
-0.0738
0.9971
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0042
-0.0667
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0439
0.9990
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
-0.004
+0.001
  • Manifold
  • 251
  • 24
  • $1,869

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0264
-0.1774
0.9817
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0268
-0.1788
0.9814
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0643
-0.2923
0.9469
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
Relative Score
A
-0.034
+0.085
+0.039
  • Polymarket
  • 71
  • 426
  • $90,658

IA-01 election: Bohannan (D) vs. Miller-Meeks (R) | Bohannan | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1878
-0.5680
0.7944
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0775
-0.3262
0.9330
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2124
-0.6177
0.7602
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
Relative Score
F
+0.038
-0.091
-0.044
  • Overall
  • 250
  • 450
  • $162,038
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0731
-0.2731
0.9244
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0361
-0.1905
0.9707
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0923
-0.3101
0.9023
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0269
0.9995

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