Will Josh Riley (D) win New York's 19th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 58
  • $18,077
This market resolves to "Yes" if Josh Riley (D) is sworn in as the representative for New York's 19th congressional district for the term beginning in 2025. The market considers any member of Democratic Party who wins a house race to resolve YES, while a Republican win results in NO. For non-major party winners, they will be expected to caucus with their respective major party. Races are resolved based on credible reporting from sources such as Cook/Inside/Sabato. If Josh Riley wins the election, this market resolves to "Riley", while Marcus Molinaro would resolve to "Molinaro" if he wins.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $8,567

Will Democratic win the House race for NY-19? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1867
-0.5658
0.7959
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0042
-0.0667
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1988
-0.5903
0.7791
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.009
-0.007
  • Manifold
  • 229
  • 18
  • $2,308

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | NY-19 Marc Molinaro (R) - Won by 1.56% | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3277
-0.8497
0.5984
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2596
-0.7124
0.6935
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2413
-0.6757
0.7195
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2536
-0.7004
0.7019
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.005
+0.003
  • Polymarket
  • 87
  • 40
  • $7,202

NY-19 election: Riley (D) vs. Molinaro (R) | Riley

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2652
-0.7236
0.6856
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2240
-0.6411
0.7438
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2070
-0.6070
0.7676
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1849
-0.5621
0.7983
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.001
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 58
  • $18,077
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2599
-0.7130
0.6933
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1626
-0.4734
0.8116
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1497
-0.4377
0.8289
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2124
-0.6176
0.7598

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