Will Matt Cartwright (D) win Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 19
  • $21,829
This market resolves to Yes if Matt Cartwright (D) loses his seat to a Republican candidate in the 2024 election. The resolution criteria is based on whether the incumbent representative is replaced by a Republican member of Congress for the term beginning in 2025. Markets like this one provide competitive analysis and ratings from reputable sources, with listed margins of victory from past elections serving as evidence. The balance of power in the House also influences market outcomes, with Republicans needing to win more seats than Democrats to gain control. If a Republican candidate wins the seat, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $19,589

Will Republican win the House race for PA-8? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5032
-1.2357
0.3791
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0060
-0.0805
0.9965
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.014
-0.005
  • Manifold
  • 232
  • 19
  • $2,240

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | PA-08 Matt Cartwright (D) - Won by 3.55%

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2497
-0.6925
0.7075
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2560
-0.7051
0.6987
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2304
-0.6539
0.7348
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3735
-0.9447
0.5368
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.014
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 19
  • $21,829
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3765
-0.9641
0.5433
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1310
-0.3928
0.8476
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1153
-0.3320
0.8674
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4046
-1.0117
0.4974

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