Will David Schweikert (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 87
  • $37,267
This market predicts whether David Schweikert (R) will win the congressional election in Arizona's 1st district. It resolves to "Yes" if the Republican Party member sworn in for AZ-1 in 2025 wins the seat, or if an independent is expected to caucus with the Republicans. The market considers competitive US House Races and takes into account the balance of power between parties. If a Democrat wins the election, the market resolves to "No". The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $18,957

Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1032
-0.3876
0.9038
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0038
-0.0638
0.9978
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1032
-0.3876
0.9038
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.008
-0.006
  • Manifold
  • 233
  • 35
  • $2,364

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1851
-0.5625
0.7980
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1946
-0.5818
0.7850
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1701
-0.5318
0.8185
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1839
-0.5601
0.7997
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.024
+0.018
  • Polymarket
  • 90
  • 52
  • $15,945

AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R) | Shah | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1760
-0.5439
0.8105
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1482
-0.4861
0.8476
Relative Score
D+
+0.014
-0.027
-0.020
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 87
  • $37,267
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1494
-0.4870
0.8446
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1248
-0.3965
0.8644
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1243
-0.3833
0.8641
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1451
-0.4779
0.8504

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