Will Scott Perry (R) win Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 56
  • $30,753
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican who holds the seat at the start of their term in 2025 is still holding the seat after the 2024 election. The race will be considered competitive, with only the most competitive seats having margins of victory listed. If a Democrat wins the election, the market resolves to "No". The resolution source for this market is based on credible reporting and takes into account factors such as party affiliation and expected caucus alignment. Markets like this one have generated consensus among experts using data from sources like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $11,445

Will Republican win the House race for PA-10? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1910
-0.5745
0.7900
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0031
-0.0570
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1316
-0.4507
0.8690
Relative Score
A
-0.028
+0.070
+0.035
  • Manifold
  • 232
  • 15
  • $1,660

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | PA-10 Scott Perry (R)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0274
-0.1810
0.9809
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0470
-0.2442
0.9638
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0325
-0.1989
0.9766
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1862
-0.5648
0.7965
Relative Score
A
-0.039
+0.095
+0.044
  • Polymarket
  • 73
  • 41
  • $17,648

PA-10 election: Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R) | Stelson | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1024
-0.3857
0.9048
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1328
-0.4533
0.8675
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1225
-0.4308
0.8805
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1936
-0.5798
0.7863
Relative Score
F
+0.049
-0.120
-0.057
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 56
  • $30,753
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1069
-0.3804
0.8919
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0610
-0.2515
0.9432
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0520
-0.2200
0.9522
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1705
-0.5318
0.8173

Similar Questions

Will Marie Perez (D) win Washington's 3rd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 213
  • $302,000
Kalshi
B-
-0.003
Manifold
A
-0.035
Polymarket
D-
+0.032
Will Juan Ciscomani (R) win Arizona's 6th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 161
  • $186,481
Kalshi
C-
+0.008
Manifold
D-
+0.033
Polymarket
A
-0.032
Will David Schweikert (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 87
  • $37,267
Kalshi
C
+0.004
Manifold
A-
-0.012
Polymarket
D+
+0.014
Will Susan Wild (D) win Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 31
  • $18,735
Kalshi
D-
+0.032
Manifold
C
+0.003
Polymarket
C-
+0.007
Will Ken Calvert (R) win California's 41st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 27
  • $20,771
Kalshi
C-
+0.007
Manifold
B
-0.007
Will Matt Cartwright (D) win Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 19
  • $21,829
Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
C
+0.002