Will Juan Ciscomani (R) win Arizona's 6th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 161
  • $186,481
This market resolves to "Yes" if Juan Ciscomani, a Republican, is sworn in as the member of Arizona's 6th congressional district for the term beginning in 2025. The market tracks competitive US House Races and considers any Republican member who wins a race to be a winning outcome. If Kirsten Engel, a Democrat, wins the election, the market resolves to "Engel." Any other candidate will cause the market to resolve 50-50. Markets are based on credible reporting and consider candidates expected to caucus with their respective party if they don't identify as part of either party.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $83,225

Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1470
-0.4836
0.8492
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0052
-0.0745
0.9970
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1470
-0.4836
0.8492
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.015
-0.010
  • Manifold
  • 237
  • 33
  • $2,107

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1489
-0.4876
0.8467
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1708
-0.5333
0.8175
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1760
-0.5439
0.8105
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0660
-0.2969
0.9451
Relative Score
D-
+0.033
-0.071
-0.043
  • Polymarket
  • 91
  • 128
  • $101,149

AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R) | Engel | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1244
-0.4350
0.8781
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1024
-0.3857
0.9048
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0529
-0.2614
0.9582
Relative Score
A
-0.032
+0.069
+0.042
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 161
  • $186,481
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1195
-0.4196
0.8815
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1001
-0.3476
0.8975
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0931
-0.3200
0.9049
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0886
-0.3473
0.9175

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