Will Mike Garcia (R) win California's 27th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 171
  • $507,921
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican candidate Mike Garcia wins the congressional election in California's 27th district. The market will resolve to "Garcia" if he wins by at least 6.48% or more, indicating that his margin of victory over the Democrat is significant enough for him to be considered a strong contender. If any other candidate wins the election besides Garcia and the Democrat George Whitesides, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is based on credible reporting and takes into account the expected caucus affiliation of non-party affiliated candidates.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3531
-0.9019
0.5640
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0070
-0.0872
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3531
-0.9019
0.5640
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.016
+0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3418
-0.8786
0.5792
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3144
-0.8227
0.6167
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2778
-0.7488
0.6678
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2115
-0.6159
0.7614
Relative Score
F
+0.038
-0.079
-0.053
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1482
-0.4861
0.8476
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1620
-0.5151
0.8293
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1482
-0.4861
0.8476
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.078
+0.053
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 171
  • $507,921
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2810
-0.7555
0.6636
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1612
-0.4750
0.8139
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1421
-0.4184
0.8384
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2715
-0.7370
0.6775

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