Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3531 | -0.9019 | 0.5640 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0070 | -0.0872 | 0.9959 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3531 | -0.9019 | 0.5640 |
Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.016 | +0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3418 | -0.8786 | 0.5792 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3144 | -0.8227 | 0.6167 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.2778 | -0.7488 | 0.6678 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2115 | -0.6159 | 0.7614 |
Relative Score | F | +0.038 | -0.079 | -0.053 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1482 | -0.4861 | 0.8476 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1620 | -0.5151 | 0.8293 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1482 | -0.4861 | 0.8476 |
7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.2500 | -0.6931 | 0.7071 |
Relative Score | A | -0.038 | +0.078 | +0.053 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2810 | -0.7555 | 0.6636 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1612 | -0.4750 | 0.8139 |
30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.1421 | -0.4184 | 0.8384 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2715 | -0.7370 | 0.6775 |
Kalshi | A | -0.019 |
Manifold | D+ | +0.011 |
Polymarket | B | -0.005 |
Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
Manifold | C | +0.004 |
Polymarket | A | -0.016 |