Will Adam Gray (D) win California's 13th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 255
  • 871
  • $3,128,061
This market resolves to "Yes" if Democrat Adam Gray is sworn in as the representative for California's 13th congressional district in 2025. If John Duarte, the Republican candidate, wins the election by at least 0.42%, or if any other candidate from a major party caucus wins, then the market resolves to "No". The resolution is based on credible reporting and a consensus among reputable sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $2,539,303

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-13? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1269
-0.4404
0.8750
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0372
-0.2144
0.9726
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1564
-0.5034
0.8368
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4468
-1.1039
0.4444
Relative Score
A
-0.019
+0.039
+0.026
  • Manifold
  • 252
  • 57
  • $8,054

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | CA-13 John Duarte (R) - Won by 0.42% - Full Toss-up | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1881
-0.5687
0.7939
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1745
-0.5408
0.8125
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1611
-0.5132
0.8306
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1662
-0.5237
0.8238
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.025
-0.014
  • Polymarket
  • 111
  • 814
  • $580,704

CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) | Gray

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1122
-0.4080
0.8931
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1449
-0.4790
0.8520
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1290
-0.4450
0.8723
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4334
-1.0739
0.4607
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.012
+0.006
  • Overall
  • 255
  • 871
  • $3,128,061
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1424
-0.4723
0.8540
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1189
-0.4114
0.8790
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1489
-0.4872
0.8466
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3488
-0.9005
0.5763

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