Will Jared Golden (D) win Maine's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 19
  • $28,109
This market asks if Jared Golden (D) will win Maine's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election. It resolves yes if a Democrat wins the seat and no if a Republican or independent wins with significant Republican leanings. The market is competitive, with current odds favoring a Democratic win but with some uncertainty. To resolve this market, Golden must be sworn in as a member of the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2025, indicating a strong party affiliation and a likely democratic leaning to represent the district.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $25,780

Will Democratic win the House race for ME-2? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0026
-0.0523
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0038
-0.0640
0.9978
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0026
-0.0523
0.9986
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.012
+0.009
  • Manifold
  • 239
  • 19
  • $2,329

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | ME-02 Jared Golden (D) - Won by 2.15% | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1406
-0.4700
0.8575
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1499
-0.4897
0.8454
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0853
-0.3454
0.9244
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0368
0.9993
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.012
-0.009
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 19
  • $28,109
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0716
-0.2612
0.9280
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0769
-0.2768
0.9216
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0431
-0.1879
0.9620
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0446
0.9989

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