Will Ken Calvert (R) win California's 41st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 27
  • $20,771
This market predicts whether Ken Calvert (R) will win California's 41st congressional district in the 2024 election. If a Republican wins the seat, the market resolves to "Yes". The resolution criteria specify that if a member of the Republican Party wins the race, it will resolve YES, regardless of their affiliation after the election. Markets with similar wording suggest that other competitive US House races are also being predicted, but they focus on determining whether Republicans will win overall.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $18,261

Will Republican win the House race for CA-41? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1079
-0.3982
0.8983
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0058
-0.0792
0.9966
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1079
-0.3982
0.8983
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.010
-0.010
  • Manifold
  • 237
  • 27
  • $2,510

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | CA-41 Ken Calvert (R) - Won by 4.69%

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1431
-0.4753
0.8543
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1450
-0.4794
0.8518
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1514
-0.4928
0.8435
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0161
-0.1356
0.9896
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.010
+0.010
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 27
  • $20,771
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1255
-0.4367
0.8763
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0754
-0.2793
0.9242
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0761
-0.2616
0.9215
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0620
-0.2669
0.9440

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