This market resolves to Yes if a member of the Democratic Party wins the race. Markets like this one consider Don Davis's (D) win in 2024 as likely if he wins the seat by more than 75% margin over his Republican opponent. The outcome is determined by the vote share difference between the winner and the closest Republican challenger. If the Democrat wins by less than 25 points, they are considered unlikely to win the seat. Markets like this one assume Don Davis (D) will retain the seat unless significant external events occur that alter voter sentiment in his favor or against him.