Will Susan Wild (D) win Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 31
  • $18,735
This market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican wins the House race for PA-7. The market includes competitive US House Races with a current balance of power in favor of Democrats, but with some seats expected to be won by Republicans. The resolution criteria is based on who wins the election, with parties and caucuses determined by party affiliation or expected caucus affiliation. Markets like this one track the outcome of individual races, using ratings from reputable sources and including information about margins of victory in previous elections.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5776
-1.4271
0.3011
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0069
-0.0868
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4787
-1.1774
0.4068
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.067
-0.039
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2140
-0.6211
0.7578
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2928
-0.7788
0.6469
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3932
-0.9863
0.5112
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3932
-0.9863
0.5112
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.005
-0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0253
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0860
-0.3472
0.9236
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.036
-0.005
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 31
  • $18,735
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2641
-0.6912
0.6862
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1286
-0.4043
0.8555
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1968
-0.5032
0.7555
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4360
-1.0818
0.4590

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