Will Nick Begich III (R) win Alaska's at-large congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 250
  • 381
  • $501,777
This market resolves to "Yes" if the member sworn in for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2025 is a Republican. If Mary Peltola (D) wins, the market resolves to "No". The resolution criteria is based on credible reporting and will consider parties other than the one that wins the election to caucus with, but only after the party is determined.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $210,727

Will Republican win the House race for AK-AL? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0043
-0.0679
0.9975
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0061
-0.0813
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0162
0.9999
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.002
+0.003
  • Manifold
  • 244
  • 64
  • $10,025

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6353
-1.5948
0.2467
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4445
-1.0988
0.4471
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5453
-1.3412
0.3338
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0157
0.9999
Relative Score
F
+0.070
-0.175
-0.079
  • Polymarket
  • 86
  • 317
  • $281,025

AK-1 election: Peltola (D) vs. Begich (R) | Peltola | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3076
-0.8087
0.6262
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4489
-1.1087
0.4418
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0177
0.9998
Relative Score
A+
-0.058
+0.147
+0.065
  • Overall
  • 250
  • 381
  • $501,777
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3584
-0.9138
0.5674
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2527
-0.6630
0.6899
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3314
-0.8200
0.5919
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0165
0.9999

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