Will Republicans control the US Senate, House, and Presidency?
  • 335
  • 4,895
  • $19,670,291
If the Republican party wins the majority in both the House and Senate, and also secures the presidency, then the market resolves to Yes. A party controls its chamber if they win a majority of voting seats or have more than half of the voting members. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, and it will resolve once all three sources conclusively call winners in the House, Senate, and Presidency. If control of either chamber is ambiguous due to ongoing special elections or runoff triggers, the market will resolve according to party affiliation at the time of the official certification.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3149
-0.8236
0.6160
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0282
-0.1840
0.9802
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5005
-1.2290
0.3822
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3334
-0.8613
0.5906
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.001
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5222
-1.2824
0.3583
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4881
-1.1995
0.3960
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5596
-1.3787
0.3191
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4422
-1.0937
0.4499
Relative Score
F
+0.051
-0.116
-0.062
  • Polymarket
  • 203
  • 4,060
  • $11,132,804

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4290
-1.0642
0.4660
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3694
-0.9359
0.5422
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4658
-1.1473
0.4218
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3025
-0.7985
0.6332
Relative Score
A
-0.037
+0.084
+0.045
  • Overall
  • 335
  • 4,895
  • $19,670,291
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4220
-1.0567
0.4801
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2953
-0.7731
0.6395
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5086
-1.2517
0.3744
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3594
-0.9178
0.5579

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