Will Josh Hawley (R) win the 2024 Missouri Senate seat?
  • 583
  • 68
  • $84,895
This market resolves to "Yes" if Josh Hawley or another representative of a Republican party is sworn in as Senator of Missouri for the term beginning in 2025. The resolution criteria are tied to official certification and may also be influenced by initial calls from Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If these sources call the race for the same candidate before the official certification, their prediction will determine the market's outcome. In this case, a Republican win is defined as any Republican winning the election in Missouri. The outcome depends on who wins the 2024 US Senate election in Missouri.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 66
  • $33,323

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Missouri? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0039
-0.0646
0.9978
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0005
-0.0215
0.9998
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0371
0.9993
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.006
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 583
  • 13
  • $23

Will Josh Hawley win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Missouri?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0425
-0.2308
0.9679
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0340
-0.2038
0.9754
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0096
-0.1033
0.9941
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0096
-0.1033
0.9941
Relative Score
C-
+0.010
-0.049
-0.007
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 55
  • $51,549

Will a Republican win Missouri US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0045
-0.0697
0.9974
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0320
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0372
0.9993
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.048
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 583
  • 68
  • $84,895
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0169
-0.1209
0.9878
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0130
-0.0983
0.9909
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0485
0.9978
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0041
-0.0592
0.9976

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